Trying to predict the markets is a near-impossible task and those who attempt to do so almost always fail. Many investors who persist in attempting to untangle the many conflicting events and investor opinions, including the sophisticated players who earn a living investing in the stock market, readily admit that trying to accurately forecast market behavior is mostly a fool&a;rsquo;s game.
The stock market is, indeed, very difficult to diagnose because it is a conglomeration of human behavior influenced by world and local events. To put it simply, investors trying to forecast or beat the markets have to be attuned to the consistencies and inconsistencies of human nature.
The stock market, for the most part, is driven by humans and human judgment, fraught with inconsistencies and conflicting thoughts. But that hasn&a;rsquo;t stopped hordes of investors from making big bets on what they believe the market will perform at any given time.
&a;ldquo;The trick is to learn from the hits and misses of the forecasting process .&a;hellip; and first and foremost, current analysis requires a thorough grounding in the economic and financial data,&a;rdquo; says Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, who recently published the book, &a;ldquo;Predicting The Markets, A Professional Autobiography.&a;rdquo; The research firm provides global investment strategy and asset allocation analyses and recommendations. It also publishes for clients a daily report on its observations on what&a;rsquo;s happening in the stock, bond and commodity markets, as well as what&a;rsquo;s currently significant in various currencies.
If there is a Wall Street pro who is supremely qualified to make sense of the markets and who is particularly prescient as a successful investor and prognosticator of where they are likely to be heading, it is Yardeni. His career has spanned an extraordinary secular bull market in stocks, punctuated by plenty of nasty corrections and severe, wicked bear markets along the way.
Take a look at where the Dow Jones industrial average has been since Yardeni started his Wall Street career in 1978 &a;mdash; and where he landed through January 2017 as a stock market analyst: When he started working at the brokerage firm E.F. Hutton in 1978, the Dow had been trading at around 1,000. Then on Oct. 11, 1982, the Dow industrials finally climbed above 1,000. And by Nov. 21, 1995, the Dow had jumped five-fold, to 5,000.
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By Aug. 25, 2017, the Dow had zoomed to 20,000 &a;mdash; a 20-fold climb since Yardeni started his career on the Street. And by Nov. 30, 2017, the Dow closed well above that level, to 24,000. Today (May 24, 2018), the Dow industrial average is trading at around 24,800.
Yardeni stayed bullish most of the time during all those 40 years. &a;ldquo;I remained bullish during all the corrections. And I was bearish when the tech and housing bubbles burst. However, I saw both selloffs as buying opportunities, as selloffs within a secular bull market,&a;rdquo; said Yardeni.
His career also blossomed during those years. Yardeni received a Ph.D in economics from Yale University in 1976, after completing his undergraduate studies in international relations (magna cum laude) from Cornell University in 1968. On Wall Street, Yardeni pursued an active and productive career, becoming Chief Economist at Oak Industries, Prudential Equity Group, and Prudential Bank&a;rsquo;s US equities division in New York City. He also served as Chief Economist at investment firms CJ Lawrence, Prudential-Bach Securities, and EF Hutton.
Yardeni also taught at Columbia Business School and became an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, s position that&a;rsquo;s much sought after. He also held enviable positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington DC.
In his book, Yardeni shares his professional insight into predicting the economy and financial markets. Here&a;rsquo;s how he described the jigsaw puzzle that could be compared with the stock market: Instead of being able to change the pieces you need to solve a jigsaw puzzle, the stock market is a more dynamic game in that the &q;picture changes as new puzzle pieces are constantly thrown on the table.&a;rdquo; The puzzle pieces consists mostly of economic news, including current events and data releases, which surely is a live streaming series of activities.
&a;ldquo;The job of a Wall Street economist and investment strategist is always interesting because we, along with investors and traders, are constantly monitoring the news events that might be relevant to the financial markets,&q; notes Yardeni. All financial markets, he points out, are affected by the business cycle and inflation, and they are all affected by interest rates. So in predicting the markets, they necessarily have to be part of the process of deciphering the puzzle.
So where is the stock market headed next? There are only two variables to predict, argues Yardeni: Earnings and the price-earnings ratio. &a;ldquo;They are not so easy to get right, given the myriad of factors collectively determine them,&a;rdquo; he cautions. The tougher of the two to divine is valuation as it is more subjective. But the earnings variable is determined by such factors as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates.
Valuation is affected by those same factors, but it is also subject to hard-to-assess psychological influences that affect investor behavior, such as confidence, fear and greed. And there is also the problem of investors having to assess earnings expectations and how much they are willing to pay for them.
What makes market forecasting even much more difficult is that so many variables align and often compete with one another at certain times. Yardeni goes through these various variables and enlightens investors about how they are important to pay attention to.
He thinks the essential issues and sets of events to be mindful of are &a;ldquo;Globalization and Geopolitics, Demography and Growth, Technology, Inflation and Productivity, Central Banks and Cryptopcurrencies, and Science and Prosperity.&a;rdquo;
So what does Yardeni foresees ahead? His principal predictions: &q;I predict that prosperity will prevail in our interconnected global economy long into the future. If so, then so should the bull market in stocks, as it has over the past 40 years.
Yardeni&a;rsquo;s 595-page finely written book is an amazing read for its wide-ranging perspective and insightful analyses of one of the most convoluted financial subjects to understand, much less elucidate on how the capitalist world functions, and succeeds.
It is certainly a thoroughly informative must-read book not only for investors but for those potential Masters of the Universe looking to conquer the challenging world of money and finance.
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